| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 2026 | W | Akron | 38-16 | 1738.6 | -70.8 | 1667.8 | 97.1% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Purdue | 38-36 | 1667.8 | -18.5 | 1649.3 | 58.9% |
| 3 | Sep 18 2026 | L | Miami | 20-33 | 1649.3 | -18.4 | 1630.9 | 9.7% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Louisville | 30-27 | 1630.9 | +20.0 | 1650.9 | 25.0% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | Stanford | 57-3 | 1650.9 | +60.3 | 1711.2 | 76.6% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | W | NC State | 38-14 | 1711.2 | +39.2 | 1750.4 | 57.8% |